Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析

应用工程结构可靠性理论,建立煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性模型,针对其结构稳定性的极限状态功能函数高度非线性的特征,采用蒙特卡罗法在Matlab环境下直接产生服从各相应概率分布函数的随机变量数组计算其结构可靠度,编程过程简化,计算速度快,精度高,且不受极限状态方程非线性、随机变量非正态的限制,开辟了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度计算的新途径。建立了支护参数与可靠度的关系,指出了提高煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度的方法和措施,为煤巷锚杆支护参数设计和优化提供了科学依据。     

关于长江产业带建设总体布局的初步思考

重点开发长江是90年代中国经济重大战略布署。将长江产业带建设成具有强大经济实力的国家一级经济轴线,宜采用分层次推进与中心辐射相结合的发展战略,以浦东开发和三峡建设为契机,加强基础产业,发展新兴产业和第三产业,优化产业结构,以能源和交通建设先行,改善基础设施。同时,要协调产业带建设与浦东开发、三峡工程建设的关系。     

核算间接冷却水污染当量数的研讨

针对间接冷却水的特点和核算其污染当量数过程中存在的问题，阐述了间接冷却水的界定，水源水的采样监测技术，本底值的扣除以及超标排放的判别等环节的技术要求和注意事项，并就与之密切相关的几个问题展开了讨论,为核算间接冷却水当量数提供了一定的参考依据，建议增加水湿排放指标，以切实控制间接冷却水造成的主要污染－热污染。     

长江三峡柑桔的冻害和热害（二）

本文从柑桔冻害和热害的危害因子和指标等级划分的研究和选取入手,着重探讨了长江三峡地区(湖北境内)两害显著的时空变化特征、差异与关联性及对柑桔生产的影响;揭示了80年代以来冬暖春热的重大气候变化是使两害向“两极分化”的根本原因;讨论了三峡水利工程对两害时空格局的可能调整及减灾原理;最后提出了可能的对策。     

ARSENIC CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH RISK PERCEPTIONS IN A RURAL WESTERN U.S. AREA1

ABSTRACT: Churchill County, Nevada, has approximately 23,000 residents, among whom an estimated 13,500 relied on private wells for water supply in 2002. This study examined exposure to arsenic in water supplies among residents with private domestic wells and factors related to householder choice to consume tap water. It compared opinions and concerns about water quality with consumption habits and observed concentrations from tap water samples. The results from 351 households indicated that a majority (75 percent) of respondents consumed tap water and that a minority (38 percent) applied treatment. Approximately 66 percent of those who consumed tap water were exposed to concentrations of arsenic that exceeded 10 ppb. Water consumption was related to application of treatment. Among 98 respondents who were not at all concerned about the health effects of aqueous arsenic, 59 (60 percent) reported consuming tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Conversely, among 86 respondents who were highly concerned about arsenic, 33 (37 percent) consumed tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Results from a national sampling effort showed that 620 of 5,304 private wells sampled (11.7 percent) had arsenic concentrations above 10 ppb. The paradox of awareness of arsenic in water supplies coupled with consumption of aqueous arsenic in concentrations greater than 10 ppb may be common in other parts of the nation. Enhanced educational efforts, especially related to tap water sampling and explanations of efficacy of available treatment, may be useful means of reducing exposure through private water supplies.     

工业区群环境影响评价初探

阐述了开展工业区群环境影响评价的意义,比较了单个工业园区和工业区群环评的异同,以广州番禺区工业区群环评项目为例,简述了该环评的主要内容和特点,并提出了建议。     

Prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of Toriello–Carey syndrome

Toriello–Carey syndrome is a rare malformative complex, described for the first time in 1988, characterized by agenesis of the corpus callosum, facial anomalies, cardiac defects and hypotonia. Relatively few neonatal cases have been reported. We describe here the first prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of the syndrome based on the detection of agenesis of the corpus callosum and spongious cardiomyopathy in a 22-week-old fetus of a couple with positive family history. The first sib of the couple was diagnosed with Toriello–Carey syndrome at 1 year of age, and had, in addition to the typical facial anomalies not detectable by ultrasound, agenesis of the corpus callosum and the same heart lesion (spongious cardiomyopathy). This report demonstrates that prenatal diagnosis of Toriello–Carey syndrome is feasible in the second trimester of pregnancy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.